转自： http://lib.cqvip.com/Qikan/Article/Detail?id=670197340&from=Qikan_Search_Index



目的评估2010—2014年宁波市流行性感冒（流感）相关超额死亡情况,为流感防控工作提供参考。方法采用率差模型方法,分析2010—2014年宁波市的死亡数据和流感监测数据,估计流感流行导致的流感和肺炎（PI）、呼吸和循环系统疾病（RC）、缺血性心脏病（IHD）、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）和全死因（AC）这5种死因的超额死亡率。结果 2010—2014年宁波市流感活动占优势时期（P1时期）共37周;其中2010—2013年流行优势毒株分别为B型、H1N1、B型和H3N2,2014年为H1N1和H3N2。2010—2014年宁波市全人群AC平均每周超额死亡率为2.54/10万;各年份全人群AC超额死亡率分别为12.66/10万、15.19/10万,27.86/10万、12.66/10万和25.32/10万;全人群5种死因（PI、RC、IHD、COPD和AC）年平均超额死亡率分别为1.68/10万、12.83/10万、1.34/10万、0.84/10万和18.74/10万;各年度均以RC超额死亡率最高;≥65岁人群5类死因年平均超额死亡率均高于全人群平均水平,0-4岁人群5类死因的年平均超额死亡率均低于全人群平均水平。结论宁波市流感活动占优势时期主要在冬春季,≥65岁老年人以及慢性心肺疾病患者因流感引起的超额死亡较高,是流感疫苗接种的重点人群。                                 Objective To examine influenza-related excess mortality in Ningbo City from 2010—2014. Methods Data related to death and virology were collected from surveillance system of Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2010 to 2014. Rate differential model was used for data analysis to calculate excess mortality caused by five different cause of death. Results The duration of influenza prevalence was about 37 weeks from 2010 to 2014. The prevalent influenza strains from 2010—2013 were type B,H1 NI and H3N2,and the prevalent influenza strains in 2014 were H1 NI and H3N2. From 2010 to 2014,for all cause of death（ AC）,the average influence-related excess mortality per week was2. 54 per 100 000 in Ningbo City. In five influence seasons,the average influence-related excess mortality for AC were12. 66 /100 000,15. 19 /100 000,27. 86 /100 000,12. 66 /100 000 and 25. 32 /100 000,respectively. The average influence-related excess mortality for five cause of death（ PI,RC,IHD,COPD,AC） were 1. 68 /100 000,12. 83 /100 000,1. 34 /100 000,0. 84 /100 000 and 18. 74 /100 000. During 5 monitoring years,annual excess mortality of≥65group were more higher than that of total population,and annual excess mortality of 0-4 group were lower than that of total population. Conclusion Influenza was prevalent mainly in winter and spring. The excess mortality resulted from influenza was high. Vaccinating people older than 65 and chronic cardiovascular patients could reduce the risk.


作者: 劳旭影, 焦素黎, 纪威, 易波,  

机构地区: 宁波市疾病预防控制中心,  

出处: 《预防医学》  · 2016年第10期1010-1013,1018,共5页 


基金: 宁波市重点科技创新团队计划资助项目(2012B82018) 


关键词: 流感  超额死亡率  率差模型  

Influenza  Excess mortality  Rate differential model 

分类号: R511.7 [医药卫生—内科学]  ;